Buster Olney writes.......
Santana in commanding positionposted: Wednesday, January 30, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: MLB
I would love to be the agent for Johan Santana today. I would love to ever possess the kind of leverage that Peter Greenberg, Santana's longtime representative, possesses today. He can sit across the table from the Mets and say: We'd like an extension please, of six years and $150 million. On top of the $13.25 million owed for this year.
The Mets will blanch. They will grimace. They will groan. And Greenberg, whose office is in New York and is well aware of the public pressure on the Mets to finish this deal, will know exactly how boxed in they are right now.
They're coming off the worse late-season collapse in baseball history.
They've got a huge hole at the front end of their rotation.
They've done almost nothing to upgrade the team this winter, with the most significant player move being the departure of Tom Glavine as a free agent.
The Mets will offer Santana something much less than $25 million a year, initially. Maybe five years, $20 million.
Greenberg can just say no to that, because the Mets need Santana like someone lost in the desert needs an oasis.
The Mets just made what is perceived to be a tremendous trade for Santana, a deal without giving up either shortstop Jose Reyes or prospect Fernando Martinez.
Santana was essentially dropped in their laps, after the super money powers in the Bronx and Boston ended their two-month stare-down by slowly backing away from the fight. After circling and circling this situation like a buzzard, the Mets now sit on top of this, ready to gnaw.
After Greenberg says no to five years and $100 million, the Mets might upgrade their extension offer to something in the range of five years and $115 million. And Greenberg can just say no, because of where the Mets sit, and because of history.
The largest contract deal ever for a pitcher went to Barry Zito last winter, at seven years and $126 million. And everybody knows that Santana is better than Zito, as much as Tom Brady is better than Philip Rivers. The Players Association will want Santana to establish new benchmarks (highest average annual value and total package) for a pitcher; the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano currently has the highest AAV at $18.3 million.
The Mets will swallow hard and go to a sixth year. Six years, $22 million, for a total package of $145 million, including the $13.25 million Santana will make this year. And Greenberg can say no, because he knows the Mets have to sign him.
They're opening a new ballpark (what appears to be a beautiful CitiField) in 2009.
They've got their own network.
They play in New York.
They cannot get this close to signing the best pitcher on the planet and come up short, only because of money; their fan base will riot if, on Friday afternoon, we learn that the deal fell through because of dollars.
Greenberg is in an incredible position of power this morning. He can throw the Mets a little financial bone. Tell you what, guys. We'll come down to $24 million a year. But nothing more than that. Because my client has two Cy Young Awards and he would be perfect for your team and your city and your league. And next fall, if my client becomes a free agent, the boys in the Bronx will be sitting there, poised to offer him a HUGE deal. Everybody now knows Hank Steinbrenner loves him. The Yankees have a bunch of contracts coming off their payroll in the fall: Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, etc. I'm asking for six years and $25 million now, but I might get more than that from the Yankees in the fall, especially if they don't make the playoffs in 2008.
That scenario is a little frightening, isn't it? You guys get to the 1-yard line in this process but don't finish the deal over dollars, and then he becomes a Yankee in 10 months. Ouch. No, we'll sit on our asking price.
The Mets will blink. They have to blink.
Santana is expected to get a six-year deal for something in the range of $130 million, writes La Velle Neal. Economics should not kill this deal, writes Murray Chass.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the end, the Twins wound up taking what was probably the fourth-best offer they saw during this process, after not jumping at deals built around Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes along the way. We can sit here, as Monday morning quarterbacks, and say they could've gotten more.
But of course, it was a lot more complicated than that along the way. The end line was a moving target, and if you were sitting in the seat of new Twins GM Bill Smith, there was a lot of reason to think the Yankees might jump back into the mix with both feet, considering how outspoken Hank Steinbrenner was about wanting Santana. And if the Yankees had stayed in play, the Red Sox would've continued to nudge their offers up a little (not much, though), and the Mets' package -- which, in early January, the Twins' evaluators regarded as being vastly inferior to what they wanted to get from the Yankees or Boston. Smith waited, hoping for what was a brutal situation to turn his way, and it did not.
Oakland got more for Dan Haren, and the Orioles -- who are addressing a technicality that has popped up in the proposed Erik Bedard deal and will probably soon reach the point where they give Adam Jones and others physicals -- will get a better deal for their pitchers. But comparing the Haren and Bedard trades to the Santana situation is an apples-and-oranges deal. The offers for Santana were diminished greatly by Santana's impending free agency, and the fact that he was in position to demand the largest contract in the history of pitching (see above). If Santana was still three years away from free agency, the Yankees probably would've offered Hughes, Kennedy and some of the best horses on Steinbrenner's farm, because of the relative cost.
Could Smith have made better deals earlier in the process? No question. But to say he made a mistake, another GM mused late Tuesday night, "you would have to be completely ignorant of the process, and how this played out. Anyone who says that doesn't know what he's talking about."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Something else to consider: Always assume that the folks involved in making a trade usually have more information at their disposal than we have. And the Twins' push to finish this deal now, rather than opting to keep Santana, raised the eyebrows of many of Smith's baseball brethren. "They've obviously made the decision they have to get him out of there before spring training starts," said another GM, "and you have to ask yourself: Why?"
I wrote here earlier this month that evaluators from four different teams saw the same signs of regression in Santana in his last seven starts at the end of last season: diminished velocity, an unwillingness to throw his slider. Two of the evaluators had concerns about this and wondered if Santana was completely healthy, and two did not, chalking the regression to the lack of late-season adrenaline on a Twins team that wasn't in the race.
"The Twins are going to know him better than anybody," an evaluator in the AL said Tuesday night. "It's not that they think he's hurt, but maybe they're seeing signs [of decline] in him, and figure it's better to make the move now."
A clear option would've been for the Twins to hang onto Santana and try to win in '08. "But there was a reason why they made the decision to move him now," the evaluator said. "They're smart people over there. It makes you think …"
Keeping him wasn't an option for the Twins, writes Jim Souhan. Smith misread this situation, writes Ken Davidoff.
The deal leaves the Twins young and unsettled, writes Phil Miller. The Twins have been prepared for this to happen, Mike Redmond tells Kelly Thesier.
There isn't a can't-miss guy contained within the Mets' entire package, writes Ben Shpigel.
Brian Cashman has put his neck on the line by not finishing this deal, writes John Harper. There is no question that this situation will either make or break Cashman at a time his contract is set to expire on Oct. 31: If the Yankees make the playoffs again without having traded the prospects and spent the money, or if Santana breaks down this season, then Cashman will look brilliant to his bosses (Steinbrenner, in particular). But if the Yankees don't make the playoffs for the first time since 1993, and the Mets do make the playoffs, well, this may turn out to be the non-move that nudges him out the door, because Steinbrenner is on the record for favoring the move.
The Yankees helped the Mets in this situation, writes Bob Klapisch, who says the Twins called the Yankees late Monday and offered Santana for Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera and others, only to be told no.
Give the Mets credit for staying in the game, writes Dan Graziano, who writes that this is the luckiest the Mets have been since the night of the Bill Buckner play. The Mets knocked the Giants off the back page, writes Mike Lupica. The Mets have become the team to beat in the NL East with this trade, writes Joel Sherman.
The outcome of this isn't the worst thing that could've happened for the Red Sox, says Tom Werner. The Red Sox sort of won the Santana negotiations, writes Joe McDonald. The pressure is now on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to be good, writes Michael Silverman.
• David Wright is fired up to get Santana.
• The Phillies have been aced out in this situation, writes Jim Salisbury.
With Pedro Feliz in the fold, it looks like the Phillies may look to move Wes Helms, writes Paul Hagen. The Giants continue to look around for third basemen.
ESPN colleague Willie Weinbaum attended Tuesday's BAT dinner, and generated these notes:
Nice cocktail party scene of former football Giants GM Ernie Accorsi, before leaving for the Super Bowl, getting Dr. Bobby Brown's autograph and marveling at the great feeling of having revered him as a boy and now approaching him for an autograph many, many years later.
A beaming Mets braintrust, led by Owner Jeff Wilpon and GM Omar Minaya, was in attendance amid the Santana trade frenzy as David Wright received the Bart Giamatti Award for Community Service and gave a thoughtful and humble acceptance speech.
Former minor leaguer Scott Hodges poignantly recounted the help BAT provided as he battled cancer. BAT chairman Bobby Murcer, who vowed from afar a year ago to beat brain cancer, made a triumphant return to the dais.
As the 1968 Tigers and Cardinals were celebrated, Denny McLain's wisecracks -- including shots at the unruly hairdo of "Big B.A.T./Frank Slocum Award" recipient Dmitri Young -- and the camaraderie and witty reminiscences of Bob Gibson, Orlando Cepeda, Tim McCarver and Mike Shannon stole the show.
• With the Bedard deal on hold, other teams have checked in to inquire about a deal with the Orioles, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
• The Santana deal could put the spurs to the Bedard-Mariners talks, writes John Hickey, who also addresses a report, within this story, that Adam Jones might have a hip situation affecting this proposed deal. The Mariners need more than Bedard, writes Art Thiel.
• Scott Podsednik is looking for work with the Rockies, writes Tracy Ringolsby.
• Joe Beimel's arbitration date has been set.
• The Giants are leaping into a new era, writes John Ryan.
• Turns out the Milwaukee stadium tax may not be retired, as expected, writes Don Walker. The Brewers worked out contracts with a couple of youngsters.
• The Nats agreed to terms with Johnny Estrada, at a time when Paul Lo Duca's situation seems to be unclear.
• Damaso Marte has a sore neck after being in a car accident, writes Dejan Kovacevic. The Pirates are considering signing Paul Bako.
• The Pirates are upgrading their teaching and development. Bob Smizik wonders if the Pirates are selling false hope, if it is not accompanied by winning.
The Pirates have a sinking feeling again, writes Rick Hummel.
• The Astros signed a couple of veterans.
• A healthy Ryan Shealy could boost the Royals, writes Jeffrey Flanagan.
• It's out of necessity that the Rangers' bid to land Nolan Ryan is pitcher perfect, writes Jim Reeves.
• Brandon Inge is bitter, writes Jon Paul Morosi.
• A deal with Alex Rios could push the Jays into the $100 million club.
• The Mariners' Brodie Downs is a long shot you have to root for, writes Steve Kelley.
• Reds fans are not thrilled about the team's move to the desert, writes Hal McCoy.
• As long as Rafael Soriano is OK, the Braves' bullpen should be OK, writes Carroll Rogers.
• The mayor of Miami defended the city's stadium plan for the Marlins, writes Barry Jackson.
• Andrew Miller is out to make an impression, writes Joe Capozzi.
• The Cubs will play in the final Hall of Fame game. Mike Imrem feels sorry for the Cubs, in light of the rare AL-to-NL transfer of talent with the Santana deal.
• Vanderbilt has been its own worst enemy, says the Commodores' coach. Can't disagree.
PED ZONE
• Andy Pettitte will tell investigators that he talked with Brian McNamee about Roger Clemens' alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs, the lawyers for McNamee tell the New York Times.
• The more J.C. Bradbury looks at the numbers presented by Clemens's agent, the more he's convinced that McNamee is lying.
Clemens's latest pitch won't pay off, writes Tom Knott.
• Koby Clemens stands by his dad.
