I watched a guy who heads the Trafalgar polls on Hannity last night (Trafalgar was the one poll who accurately called Trump's victory in 2016) and across multiple programs, he has been predicting a Trump victory this time as well. He says that the other pollsters have learned nothing in the last 4 years, and are making the same mistakes they made 4 years ago, over-sampling Democrats in polls an average 10% above their actual ratio of the population. And regardless, even in the rigged polls, in all the key battleground states, Trump is sampling 2 to 6% better in each state against Biden than he was doing at the same time against Hillary 4 years ago. He predicts a minimum victory for Trump in the high 270's, and possibly 310 or higher electoral votes.
Keep in mind also that Trump is polling 56% on the question of "are you better off now than 4 years ago?"
At the same point in his presidency in Nov 2012, Obama was polling 49% on that question. And yet even 7 points lower, Obama was re-elected.
Look also at the huge crowds at Trump rallies, where Biden often only draws a few dozen voters, at most. Often reporters and Biden staffers outnumber the voters. Likewise on the stump with Kamala Harris. That manifests an enormous energy in support of Trump not reflected by the polls.
And crowds that chant WE LOVE YOU! WE LOVE YOU! When have you ever seen that kind of enthusiasm, in the wordss of the crowd themselves, the love, for a presidential candidate?
On a program called Weekly Briefing on OAN, Chris Farrel (of Judicial Watch) and the pollsters (not Trafalgar, I forget who) on the panel similarly said Trump is winning by a much better margin than the mainstream (liberal) pollsters are projecting. One ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump in Wisconsin at -17, while Trafalgar has Wisconson at +1 for Trump.
That's an 18-point discrepancy between the two polls!
But who was right last time? And from what Trafalgar said, the liberal pollsters are repeating the same mistakes as 2016. Farrell and the panel's pollsters said not only will Trump win, but that the election will be called that evening decisively, and not prolonged over several days and recounts.
Likewise on Lou Dobbs last night, Trafalgar's polls were cited again. Although in the opening segment, Rasmussen on Dobbs predicted a likely win for Biden.
For conservatives, as we've learned every election since the Bush Sr./Dukakis race in 1988, the polls are run by Democrats, and their purpose is to skew the results as part of the Democrats' psychological warfare game, to discourage and suppress the Republican vote. Dukakis was touted as ahead 17 points also, and lost in a landslide on election day. I don't know if I told you guys, but in summer 1989 Dukakis was a visiting professor at Florida Atlantic University where I was a student. So from presidential candidate to visiting professor at a third-rate university in less than aa year.
In 2000, the liberal networks in error called Florida for Gore before 7 PM (they're not supposed to predict winners before 7 PM!), and in her book Slander Ann Coulter cited Republican voters stayed home as a result, and cited sources comparing 2000 to the 1992 and 1996 elections in Florida, the false call for Gore before 7 PM lowered the Republican vote by between 10,000 to 37,000 votes. Since the election was won by about 500 votes, not calling Florida early would have decisively given Florida to Bush, far beyond any need for a recount.
I see a liberal pollster on TV now, who is saying Biden will win, and by a decissive landslide. No surprise there. Both sides are making their closing arguments.
The bottom line is, regardless of which way it goes, the only poll that matters is the one on election night.
