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#1229619 - Sat Aug 24 2019 08:06 PM The trade war (or best scenario, negotiated trade agreement) with China
Wonder Boy
Offline brutally Kamphausened

Registered: Wed Sep 12 2001
Posts: 21579
Loc: A glorious bold new America

I was tempted to make this part of the China sees the U.S. as its primary enemy topic.

But the trade aspect is a separate topic.
Although in the words of von Clausewitz, war is the continuation of politics by other means. And for the moment, politics is the waging of war by other means.

The U.S. began trade with China gradually, since Richard Nixon opened relations with Red China in 1972. But trade only began to explode open with China in the 1992-1994 period. Initially, China was a developing nation, so we gave them some advantages in low tariffs and allowed them to charge us disproportiantely high tariffs. To allow them to develop.

But now they threaten to eclipse us economically, and have a clearly hostile 100-year plan to become the world's sole hegemonic superpower. And to do that, they want to displace and crush the U.S. out of its existing global hegemonic position.
Displace and crush both militarily and economically. And given the way they treat their own citizens, it would not be a good world for the rest of us if that were to happen.

So Trump's policy (the only president in 30 years to stand up to China, and the only candidate of either party who ever would) is simply this:

1) Stop your huge $500 billion annual trade deficits with the U.S.
Stop manipulating your currency illegally to maximize your exports. Stop charging disproportionately high tariffs in China to deter U.S. imports, that if lifted would balance out the trade between the U.S. and China.


2) Stop your cyber-theft and other espionage that is stealing another $600 BILLION A YEAR from the U.S.
Stop requiring U.S. companies to hand over their secrets to China to do business there, so that China can set up China-state-run businesses using the U.S. companies' own trade secrets to go into direct competition with them. And then China drives them out of business, and achieves global domination in those industries, from computers to satellite technology, to ships, to steel, to aircraft.
Stop building hardware through companies like Huawei that allows you to spy on and steal even more military and industrial secrets, just by companies and governments purchasing and using Huawei technology.

Basically to China: Play by international trade rules, stop stealing from us, stop stealing from every nation you do buusiness with. And even cyber-theiving from the nations and businesses they don't do business with.

Virtually every corporation and mid-size/small-size business in America has been hacked into and stolen from by the Chinese. As has every federal and state government agency and utility. Including our military. As have the businesses and goverments of Europe, and Australia, and the rest of the world.

As I posted elsewhere, China is also essentially economically colonizing Africa and South America, through heavy Chinese business and infrastructure investment.
Even in the U.S., China is the largest real estate investor.

If Trump were not president, under a President Hillary Clinton or any other Republican candidate, we would be just resigning to the fact that China would imminently take us over.
Under Trump, we are pushing back, and pressing China with hard sanctions, forcing China to play by international rules. Now is the time, while China is deeply economically dependent on foreign exports to the U.S. and Europe.

Yes, economic sanctions are slightly diminishing growth in the U.S., in the short term.
But because China doesn't have a middle class yet, to purchase from and sustain Chinese maanufacturing industries, they are deeply dependent on exports, so our counter-sanctions are absolutely crippling China economically, to the point that President Xi is in danger of being deposed by other factions of the Chinese government.

If China wins, they overtake us economically, and overtake the world, and it becomes a far darker and more Orwellian planet, as they spread the oppressive model they use exert control over their own country on the rest of the world.
If we win, democracy expands, and China is forced to change and conform to the same economic trade rules as the rest of the world. And hopefully loosens their oppressive grip on their own people, and expands human rights even in China.

I've been increasingly pessimistic that China will make a deal with Trump/the U.S., or if they did, if they would honor the agreement and really change. China has often given assuring words and not honored previous agreements.

And then Trump did the incredible yesterday, and suggested that if that's how it's going to be, then maybe it would be better if the U.S. de-coupled its economy from China's, and shut them out. That all those factories in China could move to Thailand, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Indonesia, or even many of them back to the United States.
Regardless of whether China signs a deal or not, all those factories are now going to leave China, because China pushed too hard and now looks unstable to business owners. And that's good. China will be economically starved into playing fair with the U.S. and with the rest of the world, and abandoning its unfair practices.

Regardless of the outcome of U.S./China trade negotiations with Trump, China will from this point have its momentum broken and be diminished. They are less of a threat already, because they are weakened. Much of that industry is leaving China, regardless of a trade deal or not with Trump.

And inevitably, because China needs our trade way more than we need theirs, they will be forced to deal.

If it's China's way, that deal will not happen before Nov 2020. They hope to interfere with our election, and cause Joseph Biden or some other spineless Democrat to replace Trump, who will again be a subservient lapdog to China, and perhaps make Biden a billionaire in the process for selling us out (as is his history, in both China and Ukraine).

But as unstable as China is now, President Xi could face a coup between now and Nov 2020. He might want to make that deal a bit sooner, to protect his own position of power. Regardless, Trump is enacting a power-shift in China that is already weakening China economically and militarily. In a Chinese economy with the lowest growth in 30 years, companies are beginning to leave.
And they won't be coming back.

That business exodus at the very least slows China's hundred-year march toward global domination. Regardless of how the trade deal with Trump shakes out. Business leaving China is a ship that's already sailed.

#1229632 - Tue Aug 27 2019 06:02 AM Re: The trade war (or best scenario, negotiated trade agreement) with China [Re: Wonder Boy]
Wonder Boy
Offline brutally Kamphausened

Registered: Wed Sep 12 2001
Posts: 21579
Loc: A glorious bold new America

Lou Dobbs last night (Monday, 8-26-2019) with K.T. McFarland and Gordon Chang

K.T. Mc Farland argues that the U.S. has the strongest economy of any G-7 nation, and with recent strengthened trade agreements with South Korea, Japan, Canada and Mexico and others, is in a very good position to leverage an agreement from China with a unified front.

Gordon Chang (an author and expert on China) argues that we should not make an agreement and continue to trade with China, that we should move all that business to other nations. That even if China made an agreement, they would not honor it and would continue to cheat the U.S. and its allies. That the only way to force China to truly change is to exclude them and starve them economically until their current government collapses and is replaced, and then are forced to make changes they will never make otherwise.

This is an insightful 10 minutes.

Increasingly, I see the wisdom of Trump's policy. To have made every effort to make a deal with China, but knowing they will not deal, and will not honor their terms if they do sign a deal. And has thus made a de facto deal of his own, to move U.S. industry out of China and move it to other nations. Whatever negotiations China makes at this point, this will happen regardless. Which is so much better than enabling China and just allowing them continue to to fleece us, and the rest of the world.

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