A week ago, an uprising in Venezuela looked like the end of the Maduro regime was imminent, and I really thought it was only a matter of days.
A week later... it seems like the stalemate remains. When you're ruler of Venezuela, and your people are literally starving to death, I don't know where there is to go for the Maduro government. They have nothing else to offer, other than clinging to power. But it could be some prolonged months until that happens.
A week ago, Maduro was just about to board a plaane and escape to Cuba, and it was reported that thr Russians propping him up convinced him to stay. Otherwise, he'd already be gone.
The Russian military.
The Cuban military.
And Chinese economic aid.
That's the only reason Maduro is still in power. Not because of Maduro's ability to govern, or even to militarily hold power on his own.
There was a report on Tucker Carlson a week ago (April 29th), with several military and latin American experts that for me persuasively explained why the U.S. should not intervene militarily.
First, the Colin Powell "china store rule", of if you break it, you own it. It has to be seen as a Venezuelan decision and not a U.S. intervention to overthrow Meduro.
And second, Guaido is another socialist, whose administration might yeild a lack of change and further bankruptcy in Venezuela. If the U.S. intervenes, we will be obligated to subsidize what their government can't provide for its own people, that could be tens or even hundreds of billions annually, with no end in sight. So better that the states like Colombia or Brazil that are directly impacted by Venezuela lead the charge, if military intervention is required.
But it does make me uneasy that Russia and China are getting a toehold in this hemisphere in Venezuela. If U.S. military action at some point is required at some point to dislodge that aspect (Monroe Doctrine), I wouldn't object too much. But I think Maduro can be leveraged out short of that within a few months.
