I've begun to find the Oscars interesting again in sort of a predictably ridiculous, maybe even tragically funny kind of way. Lewis and Christie are virtual locks. Bardem and Blanchette aren't far behind as supporters. No Country will most likely win Best Picture; maybe it's not a slam dunk, but it's a safe bet. I personally don't think it's better than Blood or the undernominated Assassination of Jesse James, but it's a fine selection and as technically outstanding a movie as the Oscars have given the award to since...I dunno, Schindler's List? With a few exceptions(The Departed, American Beauty, I guess begrudgingly I'll include Titanic), the Academy has a long streak of recognizing either bombastic(and typically sappy) glorified mediocrity or mindless big budget sword epics.
The one big award I could see as up in the air is Best Director. The Coens I guess are the favorite. Paul Thomas Anderson is tops in my book. Julian Schnabel's film is far from perfect, but he seems to be the critic darling of this year.
Of course, the Academy is so in love with George Clooney that maybe Michael Clayton will win everything. Wilkinson and Clooney aside, I was kind of underwhelmed by it...perhaps simply because of the massive critical hype.
However the awards go is however they'll go, but I do have two "complaints". The first is that Casey Affleck is nominated as a supporting actor for Assassination, when he's a lead. I've had this argument so many times. Brad Pitt is not the lead. Affleck is. Affleck, incidentally, can actually act, which I admit surprised me. The second is that the Academy disqualifed Jonny Greenwood(of Radiohead fame) from Best Score for There Will be Blood due to what sounds like a vague, inconsistently-enforced trivial rule.
