GOP turnout and GOP vs Dem turnout numbers are trending parallel to 2000...the year the Supreme Court decided the election. You put Cruz at the top of the ticket and you really think those folks are going to sit at home? They'll get out and hold their noses just like so many Republicans will when their guy doesn't get the nod.
Cruz is trending to what could be below threshold in Florida. Rubio dropping out could put Trump above 50% (needing about a third of his votes at most) there and effectively neutering Cruz's claim that he has a high floor and a low ceiling. This claim that a one-on-one will go against Trump has no legs...
GOP turnout and GOP vs Dem turnout numbers are trending parallel to 2000...the year the Supreme Court decided the election. You put Cruz at the top of the ticket and you really think those folks are going to sit at home? They'll get out and hold their noses just like so many Republicans will when their guy doesn't get the nod.
Yes I do. Because Hillary is totally detached from millennials.
From what I've seen in California, the thirty-and-below liberal crowd only got excited and really determined when Sanders offered an alternative to Hillary. I wouldn't necessarily say they're as zealous as the Ron Paul-tards, but every one of them I have spoken to has made it apparent that they're going to write his name in if he does not get the nomination. Otherwise, they're just not going to participate.
If Sanders won the nomination--which I don't think is going to happen--then I would be worried about democrats not staying home. If an when he leaves the race, whatever energy the Dems have now will die down. And if he tries to endorse Hillary after being drummed out, it will simply be a kiss of death for both of them in the eyes of college lefties.
By comparison, lefty millennial knowledge of Ted Cruz is nil, and ultimately overshadowed by Trump.
Quote:
Cruz is trending to what could be below threshold in Florida. Rubio dropping out could put Trump above 50% (needing about a third of his votes at most) there and effectively neutering Cruz's claim that he has a high floor and a low ceiling. This claim that a one-on-one will go against Trump has no legs...
I didn't say Rubio was going to drop out prior to Florida. I was pointing out that his inability to keep Florida--a key state, as well as his home turf--will render moot any arguments of political relevance derived from his Minnesota win. in which case, he's being outdone in Florida.
Looks like it's going to be Clinton vs game show host that has a bunch of bankruptcies, multiple marriages and a David Duke endorsement. Gee I wonder who's going to win, lol.
Trump is far from my dream candidate and he certainly doesn't have the general sewed up However: 1. I think the past six months have proven nobody should get over confident going against him. 2. The ' GOP candidate is supported by rassists' card gets played in every election. 3. If a half black community organizer with a Muslm middle name can get elected, anyone can.
In fact, if Trump's tactics had been used in 2008, we might have had a completely different result.
Trump wouldn't have stopped hammering Obama on his past like McCain did. And his candidness is proving to be effective at not only getting record turnouts, but also sending the media into a permanent meltdown mode.
Looks like it's going to be Clinton vs game show host that has a bunch of bankruptcies, multiple marriages and a David Duke endorsement. Gee I wonder who's going to win, lol.
Trump is far from my dream candidate and he certainly doesn't have the general sewed up However: 1. I think the past six months have proven nobody should get over confident going against him. 2. The ' GOP candidate is supported by rassists' card gets played in every election. ...
Sorry I forget that in the GOP game it doesn't actually matter what a republican says or does as long as somebody pronounces that a nonrepublican has played a card, lol. I am however all for Hillary to keep the smack down going till long after Trump or whatever thing you guys end up nominating stops twitching.
Looks like Trump in Kentucky with La polls still open for another--roughly--twenty minutes. Is anyone really surprised that Cruz won in a place that sent Brownback back to the Gov's mansion despite plunging his state into the abyss and another place that elected the guy talking about these guys that come from other places to sell drugs and impregnate white girls? No, we're not surprised. What is surprising is the most recent ARG Michigan poll that has Kasich jump up about twenty points to beating Trump by 2. Stands as an outlier at the moment but...damn.
And, WB, seriously? "A spot on the screen"? It is some sort of something his body produced and which he reabsorbed. It is gross and just ewwww.... The debate the other night was the epitome of immaturity and vapidness. Don't blame me for the GOP letting it descend to that level. Don't blame me for Hillary. If/When it happens, then it will totally be on you guys and your kind.
Only if your from another country that hates us WB. Flush the toilet and get better candidates for your party.
None of the Republican candidates are being investigated by 100 agents of the FBI, with a pending indictment on treasonous charges hanging over them, regarding her illegal private e-mail server, where she revealed hundreds of top secret documents, many of them redacted by the FBI, that have put CIA field agents and foreign informants at risk of being killed. That has left her e-mails and those individuals and whole government departments that corresponded with Hillary on her server at risk of being hacked by the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans, Al Qaida and ISIS.
None of the Republicans lied to the surviving families of those who died in Benghazi, where Hillary Clinton blamed the attacks on a Youtube video EVEN AS SHE CORRESPONDED BY E-MAIL WITH CHELSEA CLINTON AND THE LIBYAN GOVERMENT THAT SHE KNEW THOSE TALKING POINTS WERE FALSE!
Those alone, among many other corrupt acts, lies and crimes, make Hillary Clinton unworthy of being president. And hopefully unelectable. Apparently even PROVEN treason doesn't eliminate the most corrupt Democrat on the stage from eligibility to you.
They've called Louisiana for Trump. He still leads by 10% in KY. Looks like it might be an even split for the night between the pro-booger and pro-my-penis-is-"yuge" crowds...
And, WB, seriously? "A spot on the screen"? It is some sort of something his body produced and which he reabsorbed. It is gross and just ewwww.... The debate the other night was the epitome of immaturity and vapidness. Don't blame me for the GOP letting it descend to that level.
That's how you're rationalizing your tone? They're immature, so I'm gonna be immature too and talk about snot?
.....Nah, you're fulla shit. If you had just kept insulting Trump for his--to say the least--outspoken inelegance, then that would have been one thing. But putting that on par with Cruz's nasal malfunction is disingenuous to the point of ridiculous--especially in the face of Sanders and Clinton having histories of corruption and eccentricity that eclipse the GOP front runners.
No, you are just trying to cover for your guy. He could've wiped it away, but he made a cold, calculated decision to suck it up. It gives the impression of someone you do not want making that split second decision in the middle of the night. Sorry he had to go and make an impression like that, but add that to the list of things that isn't my fault this election cycle. It is totally on the level with Trump talking about his dick. Them's the breaks!
The Democrat debate from earlier tonight, March 6, 2016:
Bernie Sanders finally went after Clinton more aggressively, but the consensus is, too little too late. He can't possibly get enough delegates at this point to beat Hillary Clinton.
Unless he went after Hillary on Benghazi, and on her private e-mail server and related treason, to me he was never a serious candidate. And for my money, even in this debate he didn't explore these issues enough.
The 11th Republican debate from Detroit, Michigan on Thursday, March 3, 2016. Which is where Rubio was really flailing and getting into an insult-fest with Donald Trump.
This was the worst debate since... well... the (10th) Fort Worth, Texas CNN debate on February 25th:
In both you see Ted Cruz and particularly Marco Rubio stepping up their personal attacks on Trump, in a desperate bid to get more media coverage that Trump is dominating with such remarks, in a final last-ditch ploy to save their candidacies.
Particularly before the Fort Worth debate, I wonder if Rubio and Cruz spoke prior and coordinated their attack on Trump.
The 9th Republican primary debate, on CBS, in Greenville, South Carolina, from Feb 13, 2016:
I think it's helpful to have these debates available to watch online, as this has been a busy time for me, and I often haven't had the time to watch them when they are broadcast.
It seems to me there's a lot more debates this cycle than in previous primary seasons. Definitely not always with more substance.
The 8th Republican debate on ABC News, from Manchester, New Hampshire on February 6th, 2016:
The 7th Republican debate, from Des Moines, Iowa on January 28 2016:
The 6th Republican debate on Fox Business News, from Charleston South Carolina, on Jan 14 2016:
The FBN debate was the most substantive and informative I've watched.
Looks like Trump has rebounded. Already, declared winner in Mississippi. Pulling ahead pretty dominantly in Michigan. Latest poll had him ahead in Idaho (though it wasn't that recent if I remember correctly) and fuck all if anyone has done a poll in Hawaii.
Bottom line is that Trump is hemming in his competitors. Aside from Maine and Alaska, Cruz appears to have no more than a flyover country and home state appeal. Rubio and Kasich are bound for last stands in their home states. Things aren't looking promising for either, but Rubio especially looks to be in pretty bad shape. Trump, I think, can win the nomination with either two of those states. It is assured if he wins both. And, the best anyone else can hope for at this point is to force it to the floor in Cleveland.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Donald Trump leading the race to become the Republican nominee for President of the United States. However, if the field were to consolidate, the billionaire businessman would no longer be favored in a head-to-head situation, according to the survey.
The real estate mogul leads with 34 percent support nationally, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% with 25 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 79% at 18 percent, and John Kasich rounding out the field with 13 percent, the poll results say.
“Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months,” the report released with the poll said.
Both Cruz and Rubio defeat Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head scenario.
Cruz easily defeats Trump head-to-head 54-41 percent. non-Cruz or Trump supporters prefer Cruz to Trump 72-17 percent.
Among “very conservative voters,” Cruz takes down Trump 60-34 percent. Among white evangelicals, Cruz handles Trump 64-31 percent.
Rubio also defeats Trump, but by smaller margins, 51-45 percent. Non-Rubio or Trump voters favor Rubio 69-23 percent. He, like Cruz, is favored by approximately 60% of women in a head-to-head with Trump.
Only 51 percent of those surveyed felt that they would be satisfied with Trump’s nomination, and 52 percent said they view him favorably. Cruz has the highest net favorability rating at 65 percent.
The poll also surveyed Democrat voters. It found that Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 16% nationally, 49-42 percent.
By a 69-29 percent divide, American view the current political system as “dysfunctional,” according to the survey. Yet, only 21 percent are angry at the government.
The ABC/WaPo poll sampled 1,000 adults nationwide.
Hardly surprising that Kasich supporters would shift to Rubio, but I find it rather bizarre that any portion of Cruz voters would shift to Rubio (although I have met some) let alone enough to give him an edge over Trump.
Taken at the Zenith of the #nevertrump movement. You are looking more desperate for a way to spin this than Dick Morris and the Unskewed Polls guy were in the 2012 general.
They had a good roster. The biggest problem was the numbskulls in the party leadership who thought it was a good idea to shove another bush down everybody's throat, and suck all the momentum and money away from everyone but Trump.
You are looking more desperate for a way to spin this than Dick Morris and the Unskewed Polls guy were in the 2012 general.
What spin? I'm pointing out that Cruz is the most competitive alternative to Trump.
Perhaps you're operating under a misinterpretation that I'll be significantly annoyed and/or pissed off if Cruz loses the nomination to Trump. I won't be.
I would prefer Cruz, but Trump is a win on its own anti-establishment merits, if not Cruz's own merits.
Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina doesn’t just give him momentum heading into the Super Tuesday contests on March 1st — his victory shows the emergence of a new coalition that is likely to reshape the Republican Party.
In short, Trump’s victory — and Jeb Bush’s exit — represents a blue-collar take-over of the Republican party. Trump’s victory, according to exit polls, was built on voters earning less than $100k with less than a college eduction.
Trump won voters with a high school education or less by 18 points. He won voters who had attended college or had an associate degree by 16 points. Together, these voters made up just under half (46%) of the Republican electorate.
Trump won college graduates, but by just 3 points. Voters who had post-graduate study, around one-in-five voters, broke strongly for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) [Liberty score voting record: 79%] by 11 points. The second choice among these voters was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) [Liberty score voting record: 97%]. Among all voters who had at least a college degree, Rubio won by 2 points.
Trump won every income group up to voters earning $100k a year. Among voters earning $100,000 to 200,000, Trump and Rubio split their votes.
Trump’s strength with these demographics goes a long way to explain his strong showing with evangelical voters. Trump edged Cruz by 4 points among evangelicals, 31-27. Rubio scored a respectable 22 percent with evangelicals. These voters made up 73 percent of Republican voters on Saturday.
Trump also ran very strong with veterans and voters in the military. These voters made up just 17 percent of the electorate, but Trump won them by 10 points. Trump won voters who hadn’t served in the military by just 6 points.
Trump’s strong finish is also due to the fact that he basically has created his own constiuency. Only 7 percent of Republicans are satisfied with the federal government. A slim majority of Republicans (52 percent) are dissatisfied with the government, but not angry. These voters went slightly for Rubio, followed closely by Trump and Cruz.
Forty percent of Republicans, however, are angry with the federal government. Trump won these voters by almost 20 points. Only 44 percent of Republicans want illegal immigrants deported, but these voters picked Trump again by almost 20 points.
Only 10 percent of Republicans said immigration was their top issue, but half of these voters gave their vote to Trump. He won these voters by 25 points. Votes from those who named all the other top issues — the economy, terrorism or government spending — split between Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
The same phenomenon arose over the question of whether voters want an outsider as President or a candidate with some experience. A slim plurality say they want a candidate with some experience, but these voters split their vote between Rubio and Cruz. Among the 47 percent who want an outsider, Trump won more than two-thirds of their vote, top the next highest candidate by almost 50 points.
When voters were asked their top quality in a candidate, a plurality said “shares my values.” These voters split between Rubio and Cruz. However, among voters who said “bring about change” was their top quality, Trump won their support by 23 points. For the 17 percent of voters who said they most wanted a candidate to “tell it like it is”, Trump took 77 percent of their votes.
There were essentially two different contests in South Carolina.
The traditional one contest was between candidates who share voters’ values, have a certain amount of experience, are upset with present policies, but not angry and who argue over the finer points of policy differences. That contest was a jump-ball between Rubio and Cruz.
The other contest was between Trump and politics in general. Not all the voters are angry, want radical change, want to deport illegals or prefer someone to “tell it like it is,” but a great number do want those things. Moreover, Trump has almost no competition for these votes.
Trump has formed a new winning coalition for Republican primaries. His coalition is a sizable chunk of the Republican electorate and shows no sign of abating at any time. With the economy tettering and world affairs nearing chaos, it is even possible this electorate grows in the coming weeks.
Many pundits expect that as more traditional candidates like Jeb Bush bow out of the contest, the non-Trump candidates will see a lift in their vote. That is certainly possible, but one shouldn’t bet the farm on it.
Trump is rewriting the Republican playbook. The party won’t be the same again.
In some ways similar to 1980, where the public is so dissatisfied that they are demanding a true alternative, on this occasion to the politics-as-usual coming from both parties.
No one commented on the incident with Michelle Fields, where a Trump campaign official, Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandoswki, is alleged to have grabbed her arm so hard it bruised her arm, and almost shoved her on the ground. It was witnessed by a Washington Post reporter who has worked closely with Lewandowski and recognized him when it happened, and video of the incident is partially visible from two different angles.
I like Michelle Fields, and am inclined to believe her over the denials from the Trump campaign that go against what is far beyond a he said/she said. The post reporter and video back her up. And that Trump himself denies it and doesn't just apologize and give assurances that he wouldn't allow it again, instead throwing Michelle Fields "under the bus" as she says, despite that to this point she largely has supported Trump, is the first incident about Trump's candidacy that makes me see him as just another liar politician who won't admit the truth, even about a minor incident like this one.
Last edited by Wonder Boy; 2016-03-1312:37 PM. Reason: edited for clarity
That spokesman for Breitbart just quit his job because integrity still means something to someone. Where there is smoke...I am completely with Fields on this. The campaign guy has lucked up because most angles of video get blocked right as he is grabbing at her.
Michelle Joann Fields is an American political journalist who is a Breitbart News Network reporter and a former Fox News Channel contributor.[1] Upon graduating from Pepperdine University in 2011, she gained national attention after having a confrontation with actor Matt Damon over teacher tenure reform.[2] After the altercation, Fields was hired as a reporter at The Daily Caller. Fields left The Daily Caller in 2012, later becoming a correspondent for PJ Media.[3] Fields is a regular panelist on the Fox News program Cashin' In.
Early life
Fields was raised in the Los Angeles area and attended Calabasas High School in Calabasas, California.[4] Fields is of partial Honduran descent and is the daughter of television and film writer Greg Fields.[4]
She studied political science at Pepperdine University, graduating in 2011.[5] She served as the president of the Pepperdine chapter of Students For Liberty, a libertarian student organization.[5][6]
Journalism career
Fields films and edits her videos in a citizen journalism style. She credits the internet for launching her career and believes that the popularity of her videos is due to her style of reporting. In an interview with C-SPAN in 2011 she said that the use of the internet has empowered people so much that now "one voice can be just as powerful as the New York Times."[4]
In 2011, Fields was interviewed by Brian Lamb on the C-SPAN's Q&A about her reporting style.[4] Fields has appeared on CNBC, Sky News, Fox News, Hannity, The O'Reilly Factor, Fox and Friends First, Your World with Neil Cavuto, America's Newsroom, Fox and Friends, America Live with Megyn Kelly, Stossel, and Red Eye w/Greg Gutfeld.[7] Fields was featured in Details magazine as one of "the next wave of political pundits."[8]
In 2012, Fields gave a TEDx talk on her career and the future of internet journalism.[9] In 2015, The Hill newspaper named her one of the 50 most beautiful people in Washington, D.C.[10]
In September 2014, Fields became a contributor at the Fox News Channel.[11] In November 2015, Fields joined the Breitbart News Network as a political reporter.[12]
In March 2016, while on assignment for Breitbart.com, Fields was allegedly assaulted by Corey Lewandowski, the Trump campaign manager, at a news conference at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida.[13] Fields said that as she attempted to ask Trump a question as he was exiting the rally, Lewandowski grabbed and yanked Fields, leaving bruises on her left forearm.[13] Washington Post reporter Ben Terris, who witnessed the incident, identified Lewandowski.[14] Fields filed a criminal complaint with the local police department alleging battery.[15] The Trump campaign denied Fields' account,[16] while Lewandowski "mounted a barrage of abuse against Fields on his Twitter feed."[13] A C-SPAN video released several days after the incident shows Lewandowski reaching in Fields' direction before the camera's view is obstructed.[13][17] The Daily Beast reported that this video "casts serious doubt on Lewandowski's denial he had touched" Fields. [13]
"Breitbart News is no longer a journalistic enterprise, but instead, in my opinion, something resembling an unaffiliated media Super PAC for the Trump campaign. I signed my contract to work as a journalist, not as a member of the Donald J. Trump for President media network. As recent events have proven, there is no longer a point in trying to reform the company from within, so I must step aside with my dignity intact. I wish everyone at Breitbart the best, and hope the site can redeem the legacy of its founder under much-needed new management,"
I'm unconvinced of the legitimacy of his claims. The majority of the staff is undeniably pro-Trump, but that didn't stop Shapiro from running articles that were anti-Trump or pro-Cruz on the site. Indeed, multiple writers have had the freedom to go against the grain without apparent issue. I'm not prepared to indict Breitbart as a conservative version of ABC/NBC according to this incident.
Would Andrew Breitbart have done differently? Good question. I have no choice but to defer to Shapiro on that one since I never met the man. However, while I would assume that he would have backed up Michelle Fields based on her word--and the video--it's a tad more lofty to say he'd authorize a Twitter war while an investigation was still going on.
That whirring sound you hear is Andrew spinning in his grave.
That being said. You can see where the libertarians are going. They claim to be iconoclasts. But in the end they want to be popular with the cool kids. Their leadership wants to be invited to the right parties in Washington. As a result they will bend over, grab their ankles and Pledge of Allegiance to Hillary . Watch Iggy attack Trump but not Hillary between now and November
...That being said. You can see where the libertarians are going. They claim to be iconoclasts. But in the end they want to be popular with the cool kids. Their leadership wants to be invited to the right parties in Washington. As a result they will bend over, grab their ankles and Pledge of Allegiance to Hillary...
Back to bed with you, you old gasbag!
I'm actually voting for Kasich in today's primary, largely because it's probably our last shot at stopping Le Grand Toupee before the convention. I'd like to be able to traverse the streets in June without being hemmed in on all sides by protesters.
Just curious G-man but do you really see Trump being capable of being President?
Yes. He's a gasbag (and I know gasbags per Sammitch) but he's not stupid. He'll surround himself with advisors and pretty much be a figurehead.
I also suspect (were he to be elected) you'll end up liking him as president more than I will. I say that because I tend to believe he's really a Bloomberg style liberal to moderate who's telling the populists what they want to hear right now.
