1) China's population is aging, that will diminish China's force of military age men, and an aging population will cause a decline in the economy and war capacity of China. . 2) China wants to seize Taiwan to gain economic advantage, by taking control of the global semiconductor market (even as the U.S. and Europe are already working in the next few years to eliminate the West's dependence on Taiwan semiconductors.) 3) The U.S. has a temporary deficit in war production capacity, that temporarily leaves the U.S. vulnerable to not being able to keep up production during a hot war with China over Taiwan. War in Ukraine made this vulnerability visible. But the U.S. is now rebuilding its war capacity. 4) The war in Ukraine over-extends the U.S.'s ability to fight a second regional war over Taiwan, combined with aging vulnerable U.S. military systems that limit the U.S.'s capacity to fight a war across the Pacific, to aid Taiwan. That again, is a temporary vulnerability China could exploit if they start and win a war over Taiwan while that vulnerability remains.
The saving grace will be if China is unable to increase their military war preparation for invasion (estimaed ready by 2027), before the U.S. is able to build a deterrent against invading Taiwan.
