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I've been following it, I just didn't see your topic, sorry.
I was impressed by these Ukranian moves into Russia, basically attacking the supply-chain routes for Russian military forces invading Ukraine.
Ukraine wants to be supplied with missiles to do even more strikes into Russia. But Russia has said that would be an escalation that could mean world war with NATO, if not nuclear war. Threats to do exactly that.
As I've said in previous topics on Russia's war in Ukraine, it's very difficult to get accurate coverage of what is actually happening in Ukraine.
I've seen reports that Russia is losing badly, and alternately reports that Ukraine is losing badly, and only tens of billions in U.S. foreign aid is preventing Ukraine from being forced to surrender.
Certainly, it's beyond denial that Russia has lost a lot of men in Ukraine, their army from the earliest months was astonishingly disorganized and unprepared for war, with trucks and tanks that broke down and blocked advancing columns. And high casualties make the Ukraine war unpopular among Russian citizens (although quietly opposed, because public dissent has gotten many Russian dissenters thrown in jail with long prison sentences.) Many others have fled the country to avoid military conscription into the war.
Despite the reported casualties on both sides, the numbers of both Russian military dead, and Ukrainian military dead, are believed to be much higher than what is officially reported by either side.
But this much is definitely true, at the beginning of the war, Ukraine had a population of 41 million, and Russia had a population of 140 million. So in a war of attrition, the Russians will win. And Ukraine is beginning to run out of fighting men to continue the war. Russia has more fighting men (however reluctant and unwillingly conscripted), but continuing a costly war that is killing so many Russian sons, Putin could end up with a revolution by those in his own government at some point.
So...
I think both sides, whether they openly say it or not, are hungry for a conclusion to the war. It is exhausting men and resources on both sides.
Russia expected a quick victory in Ukraine, like Crimea was a few years ago. Or Czechoslavokia or Poland were in 1939 (I don't want to exaggerate the similarities, because they are vastly different invasions, in different times, but the common denominator was seeing a quick victory and seizure of territory at no cost, that Russia believed would be unopposed by other nations).
I envision fortifying Ukraine after the war, so it is like Switzerland, a country with a citizen military that would be armed to fight for every last inch of ground, eliminate any perception of an easy victory, to deter any future Russian invasion.
Did you know that Nazi Germany toyed with the idea of invading Switzerland in 1939?
But as Switzerland was prepared for war and made clear Germany would have to fight hard for every inch of ground, Germany quickly abandoned the idea. I see that as the model for Ukraine, post-war.
Also, did you know that in 1991, Ukraine (with the sudden dissolution of the Soviet Union) was for about a year the third largest nuclear power on Earth, with 3,600 nuclear weapons?
They agreed to return the warheads to Russia, and their only condition was that Russia guarantee Ukraine's safety from any future Russian invasion. How did THAT work out?
Imagine if they'd kept just 10 of those nuclear weapons. Russia would not be fighting them now.
I especially blame the Obama administration, for not doing more to arm Ukraine in his 8 years so they could protect themselves, to make Ukraine strong enough to deter Russian invasion. When Trump was president from Jan 2017-Jan 2021, he was arming the Ukranians. There was no invasion during Trump's presidency.
And then Joe Biden stopped arming Ukraine, and further made a public comment that gave Russia the green light to invade, that the U.S. under Biden would not oppose it.
Biden also said NATO should "fast track" NATO membership for Ukraine, crossing another firm red line drawn more than 20 years ago by Putin, when Putin said that Russia would be willing to go to nuclear war to prevent Ukraine membership in NATO.
I think the U.S. should fully arm Ukraine to deter further invasion, but short of NATO membership that would be incendiary and an insult to he sated position of Russia.
But the reality is, after this devastating war, I think Ukraine NATO membership is pretty much guaranteed now.
Russia is not currently a threat to Poland, Hungary and the rest of Europe, about 90% of Russia's military resources have been engaged just to try and occupy Ukraine. Russia hasn't the resources for further invasion.
But after a peace agreement, with 5 to 7 years to rebuild and modernize their military, they could further threaten even NATO allies. They already "accidentally" shelled into Poland on one occasion.
I don't think Russia would use nukes on Ukraine during this war, it is too close to Russia itself, and a shift of the wind could bring a nuclear cloud over the border into Russia.
But never say never, Putin might be crazy enough to actually do it, if he felt he was about to be swept out of power and had nothing left to lose. Putin is also reported to have cancer and is slowly dying, furthering the idea that he has nothing to lose by going all the way in a nuclear showdown.
