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#1239907 2024-11-05 10:50 PM
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I fully expect Trump to beat Harris, and for most of that last month or so, the "538" site, the RealClearPolitics average of polls, several other pollsters, and a site where people bet on the presidential elecion, have all projected somewhere between a 60 to 65% likelihood that Trump will win.

The Senate has alsso been long projected to move to a Republican majority, somewhere between a 51 and 58 sea majority.

The least likely for the Republicans to keep is the narrow House majority, but I hope i remains Republican majority.


Florida was called about 7 PM for Trump.

Georgia (on Newsmax) was just called (10:45 PM) for Trump was well.

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_president/index.html


Dick Morris has said that the polls in the last 2 weeks are manipulated to favor Harris, as a way to boost Democrat voter morale.

About 10 years ago, I became aware that pollsters (like the mainstream media) have a liberal bias, and manipulate polls to favor he Democrats, and to wage psychological warfare on Republican voters, to convince them their candidate (in any given year, back to at least Michael Dukakis) can't win, and to just resign to the inevitability that the Democrat will win.

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I'm going back and forth between Fox and Newsmax coverage.
On Newsmax, anchor Ed Henry announced that California was just being called for heir network for Kamala Harris.

To which Katrina Szish responded: "Oh I'm shocked, SHOCKED!!"



lol

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Newsmaz is showing

Trump 246 electoral votes
Harris 177


With states called for Trump, Ed Henry said that Kamala Harris is running out of possibilities to reach 270, that she is "running out of map".

Dennis Prager said that in this year's election, Democrat policies are causing them to "suffer the same fate as Bud Lite".


I flpped over to CNN just for laughs, and they are showing
Trump 227
Harris 153

I maxed out prety quick on how much Chris Wallace and Dana Bash I could endure.

But even CNN acknowledges Trump has about a 51% lead in uncalled batleground states
Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, each about 80 to 85% of the vote counted.

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AP Press calls it, so that's what I'm following.

https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024

Currently 209:230. North Carolina was a blow for Harris. She's currently losing in Pennsylvania with 84% of the vote counted, down about 150000 votes. Georgia and Pennsylvania would carry it for him.

Can someone explain the difference to me between Wyoming and Colorado?


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Wyoming is a very conservative and solidly Republican state.

Colorado used to be conservative, but much of the exodus from California to there over the last 10 years or so has turned it to a pretty solidly blue state.


current calls on the Presidential race

Newsmax;
Trump 248
Harris 213

Fox:
Trump 232
Harris 216

CNN:
Trump 230
Harris 182

It's always a bit off between them, usually due to partisan biases, but man, I've never seen the network electoral calls so divergent.
All over the place !

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210:246, as AP Press calls Georgia for Trump. It would be hard for him to lose now.


Edit: Trump is what he is, but Donald Trump Jr is such a nepo dick.

Last edited by First Amongst Daves; 2024-11-06 1:04 AM.

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Yeah, I flipped past Fox news, and hey just called Georgia for Trump as well, in he last few minutes.

Newsmax called it about 2 hours ago !

Add to ha how Trump is leading by 1-5% in the 8 remaining "lower 48" states. (For time zone reasons,I don't think Alaska has even begun counting yet.)

But Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all have a solid lead for Trump (Nevada the narrowest, at a 0.2% lead.)
With Georgia just called, he's already won or positioned to win all the battleground states.

Maine and New Hampshire I expect to go for Harris.


While I was writing this, they just announced (1:21 AM eastern time) Pennsylvania for Trump on Fox, that gives the electorals needed for Trump to be president again.
That while not 270 for Trump yet, leaves no other electoral path left for Kamala Harris to win.


nana nana nana nana nana

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When Wikipedia gets around to posting all the final results...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

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Oh really? AP Press has 93% of votes counted, with 200000 between each candidate.

Assume for a moment that Trump wins all of Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota (it doesn't seem that likely but you never know), Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania... that would be a very decisive rejection of the Democrats by the electorate.

My daughter arrives in Boston tomorrow for a holiday, with a few days in NYC. It is poor consolation that she'll not have to suffer civil unrest while she is there.


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Trump just won Pennsylvania so that's that.

On the behalf of the rest of the Western world, Americans, what the actual fuck.

Dave, you have your well-established views on this which no doubt you'll continue to share, but everyone else, how did you manage to vote a convicted felon / rapist / kleptocrat into the highest position of government?


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Originally Posted by First Amongst Daves
Trump just won Pennsylvania so that's that.

On the behalf of the rest of the Western world, Americans, what the actual fuck.

Dave, you have your well-established views on this which no doubt you'll continue to share, but everyone else, how did you manage to vote a convicted felon / rapist / kleptocrat into the highest position of government?

So, what part of Kamala Harris did you like, and prefer to Donald Trump?

Is it the wars in Ukraine and Israel that should never have occurred, that never would have, if Trump had remained in office since Jan 2021?

Is itt he hyperinflation, where everything has gone up a least 20% in price? (and cost of a number of things like energy and mortgages have more than doubled) ?

Is it the wide open southern border, that invites terrorism, tens of thousands of foreign military from China, Russia and Iran, invading drug cartels, rapists, murderers, and other prisonerss being emptied into the U.S.from about 180 other nations, according to Border Patrol agents processing them?

Is it the surge of 20 million illegal immigrants who have no right to be the U.S., who are taking public funds and resources away from Americans by the Biden/Harris Bolshevik Party, to subsidize and transport these illegals, at the expense of U.S. citizens?
That are creating a scarcity of housing in the U.S., and surging rental prices, as well as displacing Americans that housing is for?

Is it the draining FEMA funds that now-homeless people in North Carolina and other states desperately need now, because their homes were washed away, many waiting a week or more o be rescued by missing FEMA helicopters and trucks?
That those FEMA funds were created and set aside for, NOT for transporting and housing and feeding illegal immigrants from the U.S. Southern border to all 50 states?

Is it the rapes of at least 30% of all women illegally crossing the border? (And children, many disappearing into lives of forced prostitution or just murdered, about 330,000 children lost by ICE / DHS). At least 30 % of 2 to 3 million people are smuggled across the border into the U.S. every year. That's a lot of human suffering. Who then owe debt to the cartels ans are forced to commit crimes in the U.S.to pay that debt, for many years into he future.

Is it the risk of yet another war front opening up in Taiwan, that China is clearly preparing for, and the more than 100 military jet sorties over Taiwan occurring every day in preparation for that? Kamala Harris and her benefactors would look the other way and make that happen.

Is it the over 100,000 Americans now dying every year from Fentanyl smuggled into the U.S. ? That's way more annual deaths than the annual deaths in any war in U.S. history. And make no mistake, it is open asymmetrical warfare on the U.S by China., along with an estimated 600 billion in cyber-theft from U.S. companies by China (and from European and Australian companies).



What is so great about the Democrat/Bolshevik managed decline and collapse of the United States, and the enabling of all these wars and suffering that Trump is committed to stop?
And Kamala Harris (and her globalist puppetmasters) orchestrate and want to happen, at the expense of hundreds of millions of people, not just in the U.S, but worldwide.

Yeah, Kamala Harris and the Democrats are great.
It's too bad Harris and the Democrats didn't win the election, to continue that party.
Yep, it's too bad Donald Trump will take decisive action to fix all these problems, that otherwise would have been left to continue and run wild.
Just TOO BAD that U.S. citizens and foreign visitors here will be safer because of Trump leading the country and securing is borders.
Yeah, what a shame Trump be back in power, in the way of all that that globalist corruption, wars and suffering.



I don' know how you as a lawyer cannot see how Trump was maliciously persecuted and indicted for fake made-up crimes, and forced to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for crimes he clearly did no commit. FOUR simultaneous indictments, righ before the 2024 election? Al Capone, John Gotti, or Osama Bin Ladin were never subjected to something like that. It's like a cour sysem out of Soviet Russia, Communist China, Castro's Cuba, Hugo Chaves' or Meduro's Venezuela, or what is currently being done to Bolsanaro and his ministers by the new Leftist goernment in Brazil. EXACTLY the plan of what they would like to do to Trump and his supporters, right down to a rigged election and then jailing all dissenters, even those just commenting abou the eleciton online. Thought crime.


Prosecuting Trump on fake crimes. While ignoring far more obvious crimes, by Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Bill Priestap, John Brennan, James Clapper and others, were never even indicted, NEVER EVEN INVESTIGATED.
In many cases, DOJ and FBI deliberately destroyed the evidence of their crimes. Your weaponized 97% Democrat-donating FBI and DOJ. Covering for their Democrat-Boslshevik friends.

While simultaneously manufacturingg fake crimes involving Trump, by malicious party-loyalist Democrat prosecutors, who then judge-shopped their cases to ultra-Democrat-partisan judges, then holding the trials in jury venues that were upwards of 90% jury-pools of Trump-haters, who were salivating at the prospect of finding Trump guilty of ANYTHING, just to get him, before a single word of evidence was presented in court, just to damage Trump politically, and get a Democrat elected president in 2024

Oops. Didn't go as planned, despite all that abused legal power.
I was beautiful the way these cases all were exposed as corrupt, and how most collapsed completely, and even the few convictions on bogus charges exposed their obvious bias, and will eventually be thrown out on appeal.

AND YOU SUPPORT THAT?!? Every one of these cases was perversely biased and unfair.
If you don't believe me, look up the editorials about them by Alan Dershowitz and Jonathan Turley. No one too important, just the wo most respected legal minds in the U.S.
How can you POSSIBLY call that justice, or Trump a criminal, on the most specious and fabricated of evidence?

In the case of E. Jean Carroll, she is a complete nut job, with some very odd ideas about sex.
Live on air, she told Anderson Cooper on CNN that rape is "sexy". Cooper couldn't go to a commercial break fast enough !
But even that attempted cover-up by Anderson Cooper couldn't hide how crazy and delusional this woman is. She accused Trump of raping her in an upscale department store, but she couldn't identtify exactly where or when, or even the dae or what year.
And the jury found Trump innocent of rape, but found him guilty of some weirdly obscure definiion of sexual assaault, ANYTHING to smear Trump just enough to prevent him from being elected.
But to a majority of the public, it was an obvious frame, and a vile abuse of the legal system to take out their Republican opponent.
EVERY ONE of these cases was schemed, orchestrated, and conferenced between all 4 prosecuiting out-of-state Democrat-partisan D.A's (Manhattan, N.Y. state DA, Georgia, and Jack Smith in Washington DC) . each coordinaing sinisterly (politically) with the Biden DOJ leadership. As was proven YET AGAIN in the testimony of Nathaan Wade and fuck-me-in-every postition-and luxury hotel-room-on-the taxpayer's tab Fani Willis.

And the alleged real estate estimaed vaalue fraud by Trump, where here was absolutely no victim, here Deutsche Bank used their own property assessors, said Trump's estimated value was the same as their own independent assessors, hat Trump never missed a payment, re-paid the loan on time, that Deutsche Bank made an enormous sum on loan interest, that they were very happy with the Trump organization, and would gladly loan to them again.
No crime. Escept he one the judge and D.A. plotted to make up.

WHAT PART OF THIS looks like due process and legitimate use of the law to you?
And not the made up lawfare and persecution of a political opponent it truly is?

[My best Joe Biden impression : ]
"C'mon man ! "

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*So, what part of Kamala Harris did you like, and prefer to Donald Trump?*

In response, I'm going to concentrate on that question, the good things that Harris might have brought.

1. Russia invaded Ukraine to instal a puppet. Ukraine unexpectedly fought back. I disagree with the idea of takeover of a democratic country by force. Ukraine is starting to lose. Harris would have continued support for it. Some people that Ukraine is a neo-Nazi state (I've read plenty of that from conservatives on Reddit). Regardless, degrading the Russian non-nuclear military so it is so rundown that it can't attack America's interests and actual allies, all without losing a single soldier, has got to be a good thing for global security.

2. Abortion rights. I am not much of a fan of abortion - I become less favourable to it the older I get - but I can't stomach legislation which interferes in a woman's reproductive rights. Harris would have codified Roe v Wade. That won't happen now. Some women can't afford to leave a state to get an abortion. There'll be deaths as a consequence.

3. no tariffs on China. People will still buy Chinese-made goods. Chinese-made parts are built into many American-manufactured consumer goods. China itself doesn't get hit with tariffs - it is the American business which imports them which is hit. The cost will be passed along by the importer to the consumer. That fuels inflation. I don't think most Trump voters understand that.

4. immigration. (Australia is not very good on this either.) The costings on deporting millions of undocumented refugees will be in the hundreds of billions. Some sections of agriculture will collapse without workers. America's debt will increase. ICE's activities in the last Trump presidency were cruel. People can do the wrong thing by a country's laws - illegally immigrate - but that doesn't justify institutionalised governmental cruelty as a response. You'll end up with civil unrest as a consequence.

5. the integrity of American civil society. I think Harris might have worked to heal some of those divisions. I get the impression that Biden tried, but probably not hard enough. Trump has no track record or inclination to do that.

I have no idea what Harris might have done on the human abattoir which is Gaza. It is possible she might have tried to deal with it. We'll never know.

Housing is an issue in most Western countries. We have an acute housing shortage here and my daughter who sometimes lives in Copenhagen says there is one there, too. There's no economic relationship between foreign immigrants and a housing shortage. I don't know what the solution to that is.

Intellectual property theft works both ways nowadays. China is much more advanced in some technology areas than Western countries.

As to fentanyl, it is horrific. I know the key ingredients are manufactured in China, and the PRC government has no incentive to stop factories from making those ingredients, provided they're exported. I don't know what the solution is to that. Sooner or later, China will have its own severe fentanyl problem (if it does not already) and then there might be global action on it.

No one in the election talked about climate change, no doubt because fracking is such a big issue in rural Pennsylvania, whereas it is an enormous issue in most Western countries. I can't see Harris having done much about that.


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Lots of people look to have sat this one out on both sides. I'm no Trump fan, but Tulsi joining the team to kill Harris's career aspirations for a second time is amusing.


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