I wouldn't say Jack's become predictable, more like he was beng himself. He did something for the good of Sydney, someone didn't like it, so he had to lie to the person to sooth their feelings. Think about how many times he's done it to Sydney.
Though Jack's cover up may have been too easy, it's just a matter of time before it blows up in his face/Nadia finds out. You don't think she's not going to find out the truth do you? Personally I think Sydney's atitude towards Jack is a bit harsh. Though he killed Irina to save her life, she'd been warned repeaditly by Jack not to trust Irina, that she would do anything to suit her needs, and that she did by way of putting out a hit out on Sydney. I don't know, I think Syd should lighten up, Jack knew Irina better than anyone. *shrugs*
You're right though, something isn't right about Nadia. I was on the phone while it was on last night so I had to go back and watch my tape after the episode ended and found her atitude during Jack's Psych evaluation of her to be out of line.