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the G-man #924491 2008-02-14 12:46 AM
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If that does happen, you'll just eventually be doing photoshops of Obama & his wife (unless she plays it like a GOP-first lady) instead.


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When what happens? I was talking about a sleazy Clinton deal:

 Originally Posted By: the G-man
NPR:
  • Political campaigns spend thousands, even millions of dollars to acquire good mailing lists.

    Last year, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton took the unusual step of renting out some of her lists. The transaction once again highlights the Clintons' connections to a businessman who now faces questions from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Reports from Clinton's campaign show that on Dec. 3, it collected payment for renting out three mailing lists, the sale of which netted them $8,225.

    It was an unusual transaction, according to Roger Craver, a liberal guru of the political direct-mail industry.

    There are no records that any other presidential candidates rented out mailing lists last year.

    Several sources who work in political consulting and in direct mail, who would not speak for attribution, said they were surprised by the deal, as well as its low price.

    According to one direct-mail professional, $800,000 would have seemed like a more plausible price for a quality list. A political consultant suggested that the list broker's unidentified client could have rented the list as a sample one — to do a test-run mailing.

    But most intriguing of all was the renter of the Clinton list: a list brokerage company that is a subsidiary of one of the data-collection industry titans, Info U.S.A.

    Info U.S.A.'s CEO is Vinod Gupta, a close ally of both Clintons. Gupta's empire also includes the Opinion Research Corporation, which conducts the political polling for the television network CNN.

    Vin Gupta has a long history of giving and raising campaign money for the Clintons, and gave $1 million for the 2000 Millennium Celebration, a New Year's Party thrown by the Clintons.

    When he was president, Bill Clinton named Gupta to the Kennedy Center board of directors. Gupta also got to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom. He gave another million to the Clinton Presidential Library.

    The library is run by the National Archives, but Bill Clinton raised the money for its construction and always refused to identify his major donors.

    Last fall, ABC News reported that the library rented out a portion of its donor list to a list broker — the same one that rented Hillary Clinton's campaign lists.

    Gupta spent $900,000 of corporate money flying the Clintons to various destinations. The Clinton campaign said in May that Info U.S.A. had been reimbursed to comply with federal campaigning and ethics rules.

    After the Clintons left the White House, Gupta hired Bill Clinton as a consultant. It's one of two continuing business relationships he has had since leaving office, and it has been worth $3.3 million, in addition to the options on 100,000 shares of stock.

    When challenged about that outlay of cash to the former president, Gupta has said Clinton is worth $40 million to the company.

    Kevin Starke is a stock analyst in Connecticut who follows Gupta's company.

    "If it were me, and I had hired Bill Clinton to the tune of $3 million, I think I would try to make a fairly distinct case for why that was money well spent, and I'm not entirely clear on why he hasn't done so," Starke said.

    The corporate spending on behalf of the Clintons helped fuel a shareholder lawsuit against Gupta and 10 corporate directors. It has led to an informal inquiry by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is also asking if Gupta misspent corporate funds.

    The Clinton campaign said Wednesday that the lists were rented out by her 2006 Senate campaign committee — and that the rentals took place before she began her formal campaign for president last January.

    That would mean the rental fees went unpaid for at least 11 months. Starke, the analyst, cites Info U.S.A. data showing that on average, it settles accounts within 64 days.


Just another suspicious Clinton fund raising deal. Seems to be a lot of those.

the G-man #924539 2008-02-14 1:10 AM
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Yeah but you can just as easilly start talking about shady Obama deals. (I won't repost the Rezco one you did early on before you became one of Obama's defenders)

That's one of the reasons I think Hillary would be the better choice. If a democrat wins, their going to go against the GOP attack dogs. This is old hat for Hillary while Obama is going to have to stumble & learn the hard way.


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 Quote:
Clinton Holds Lead Over Obama in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Poll Finds

By Karen Leigh
Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among Democrats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two of the states she's counting on to halt his momentum in the party's presidential race and regain a lead in convention delegates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Clinton leads Obama 55 percent to 34 percent among likely Democratic voters in Ohio, according to the poll. In Pennsylvania, she has 52 percent to Obama's 36 percent.

The survey was conducted Feb. 6-12, before Obama, a senator from Illinois, swept primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., and during the period in which he defeated Clinton in five earlier contests.

Clinton, a senator from New York, is targeting Ohio, which holds its primary on March 4. Pennsylvania voters cast ballots April 22.

``Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Senator Clinton as she will find,'' Quinnipiac Polling Institute President Peter A. Brown said in a statement. ``If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama.''
...

Bloomberg


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Both the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal have stories out today, indicating that this may still not be enough for her to win the nomination, due to the proportional rules the Democrats have.

the G-man #924684 2008-02-14 4:56 PM
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If she wins those though, she would probably retain her edge with the superdelegates thus giving her the nomination.


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While at first glance you'd think that such a scenario would favor the Clinton machine, the reality is that her institutional support within the party has erroded in the past few weeks, both because of Obama's victories and some of the nastiness that her and Bill have been throwing out there.

If Obama is otherwise doing well and she tries takes victory away from him with superdelegates, or were she to engage in a protracted battle to have Michigan and Florida seated at the convention, I suspect it would only turn more Democrats against her.

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More analysis of those polls from American Spectator:
  • ...unfortunately for her, these contests are likely to tighten. For one thing, the polling period ended on Feb. 12, before news hit of Obama's stunning trio of victories in the Potomac primaries.

    For another, Obama hasn't campaigned in either state yet. There are almost three weeks between now and the Ohio primary, and more than two months before Pennsylvania. That gives him plenty of time to campaign there, spend money on ads, and ride his wave of momentum. So Clinton still may win there, but she's unlikely to do so by wide enough margins to errode Obama's delegate lead.

    It seems to me that these polls represent a ceiling of support for her, while for him they're only the floor.


It's just one person's opinion, obviously, but I thought the addtional information about the polling dates and the amount of time Obama has to catch up was interesting.

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Another interesting observation about Hillary's current troubles, this time from National Review:
  • What is ironic ...is that Hillary was part of the McGovern team back in 1972, and it was the McGovern Commission that wrote the rules that created the contemporary primary-based nomination system. I'm sure some research into that period could turn up all kinds of interesting documents with her name on it denouncing the influence of the smoke filled rooms that now will determine her fate, and the cronyism that is now being elevated as some sort of virtue.

the G-man #924795 2008-02-14 11:59 PM
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 Originally Posted By: the G-man
While at first glance you'd think that such a scenario would favor the Clinton machine, the reality is that her institutional support within the party has erroded in the past few weeks, both because of Obama's victories and some of the nastiness that her and Bill have been throwing out there.

If Obama is otherwise doing well and she tries takes victory away from him with superdelegates, or were she to engage in a protracted battle to have Michigan and Florida seated at the convention, I suspect it would only turn more Democrats against her.


It's interesting that you frame it as her taking victory away from Obama with superdelegates. This would only happen if it's a relatively slim margin between them, essentially a tie. She can't make superdelegates pick her, she can only do what Obama is doing & that is trying to convince them that their the best one for the job. His sermon styled stump speach is probably less impressive to superdelegates in general than someone like Hillary who is comfortable with talking about the issues & finished a Senate term.

Resolving Florida & Michigan in a way that doesn't hurt the party is going to be what interests superdelegates more. If Hillary does come out ahead in the delegate total, it would be very easy to seat those two states. If it's Obama, he won't won't let them be seated if it means he loses. That will be a big problem in the general election. Saying "sorry but it's the rules & your votes mean nothing" won't cut it.


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the G-man #924810 2008-02-15 12:11 AM
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 Originally Posted By: the G-man
More analysis of those polls from American Spectator:
  • ...unfortunately for her, these contests are likely to tighten. For one thing, the polling period ended on Feb. 12, before news hit of Obama's stunning trio of victories in the Potomac primaries.

    For another, Obama hasn't campaigned in either state yet. There are almost three weeks between now and the Ohio primary, and more than two months before Pennsylvania. That gives him plenty of time to campaign there, spend money on ads, and ride his wave of momentum. So Clinton still may win there, but she's unlikely to do so by wide enough margins to errode Obama's delegate lead.

    It seems to me that these polls represent a ceiling of support for her, while for him they're only the floor.


It's just one person's opinion, obviously, but I thought the addtional information about the polling dates and the amount of time Obama has to catch up was interesting.


It's points worth mentioning. I think it would be overly optomistic not to think the numbers won't tighten up in the weeks ahead. However these are states that have been favorable to Hillary, even when polls have shown Obama ahead by double digit leads. Wins would also make it much easier for her to keep & scoop up more superdelegates to put her over.


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the G-man #924820 2008-02-15 12:26 AM
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 Originally Posted By: the G-man
Another interesting observation about Hillary's current troubles, this time from National Review:
  • What is ironic ...is that Hillary was part of the McGovern team back in 1972, and it was the McGovern Commission that wrote the rules that created the contemporary primary-based nomination system. I'm sure some research into that period could turn up all kinds of interesting documents with her name on it denouncing the influence of the smoke filled rooms that now will determine her fate, and the cronyism that is now being elevated as some sort of virtue.


Well, since we don't know it's really unfair to just make assumption. BTW Obama is ok with the rules when they work to his advantage. He has no problem being the nominee with some states not getting their say.


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DEM BIGS DEAL HILL 'SUPER' SHOCK

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the Democratic "superdelegates" should follow the will of the people in their states if they end up breaking the tie in the nomination battle - a position that dovetails with that of Barack Obama.

    Pelosi also backed Obama's position that delegates from Florida and Michigan shouldn't be seated at the convention.

    "I don't think that any states that operated outside the rules of the party can be dispositive of who the nominee is," she said. "That is to say, they can't make the difference, because then we would have no rules."

    Clinton booster Bob Kerrey, a former US senator who now heads the New School, agreed with Pelosi's position about the Michigan and Florida contests. He recently told the Villager newspaper: "You don't change the rules in the middle of the game. Period."

    "No new vote and no new caucuses, either," Kerrey added last week. "Just stick to the rules that they agreed to."

the G-man #925319 2008-02-16 10:22 PM
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Of course the rules also allow for superdelegates to vote for whoever they want to. In fact the rules intentionally leave them this freedom to pick.


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 Originally Posted By: Matter-eater Man
Of course the rules also allow for superdelegates to vote for whoever they want to. In fact the rules intentionally leave them this freedom to pick.


Top Clinton Adviser Says Superdelegates Will Decide Election, Obama’s Victories ‘Irrelevant’
  • A top Hillary Clinton adviser on Saturday boldly predicted his candidate would lock down the nomination before the August convention by definitively winning over party insiders and officials known as superdelegates, claiming the number of state elections won by rival Barack Obama would be “irrelevant”

    Obama leads handily in the pledged delegate count and has won more states but trails Clinton in superdelegates, making them potential and controversial deadlock-breakers if the race ends up a dead heat come convention time.

    Harold Ickes, a 40-year party operative charged with winning over superdelegates for the Clinton campaign, made no apologies on Saturday for the campaign’s convention strategy.

    Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe on Saturday blasted Clinton for the strategy.

    “The Clinton campaign just said they have two options for trying to win the nomination — attempting to have superdelegates overturn the will of the Democratic voters or change the rules they agreed to at the eleventh hour in order to seat non-existent delegates from Florida and Michigan,” he said in a statement.

    Obama currently leads Clinton by 136 in pledged delegates but trails by 95 in superdelegates, according to calculations given by both campaigns.

    “Hillary will end up with more automatic delegates than Obama,” Ickes said, and the number of elections won by Obama is “irrelevant to the obligations of automatic delegates.”

    That support, however, could be eroding for Clinton, as recent reports have said some black superdelegate supporters are reconsidering their endorsements since their districts voted mostly for Obama.

the G-man #925336 2008-02-17 2:45 AM
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That's all contingent on Hillary having a comeback & winning enough states to catch her up to Obama. If she does that neither will have the required amounts of pledged delegates to win the nomination & thus the superdelegates will be the deciding factor. Don't worry though G-man, Obama has been much better at greasing the superdelegates in the short time he's been in office than Hillary. I suspect he'll have plenty of fierce support at the convention no matter what ;\)


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I'm sorry. Hillary Clinton is just a bitch and she deserves to lose.

The NYT


 Quote:
Black voters are heavily represented in the 94th Election District in Harlem’s 70th Assembly District. Yet according to the unofficial results from the New York Democratic primary last week, not a single vote in the district was cast for Senator Barack Obama.

That anomaly was not unique. In fact, a review by The New York Times of the unofficial results reported on primary night found about 80 election districts among the city’s 6,106 where Mr. Obama supposedly did not receive even one vote, including cases where he ran a respectable race in a nearby district.

City election officials this week said that their formal review of the results, which will not be completed for weeks, had confirmed some major discrepancies between the vote totals reported publicly — and unofficially — on primary night and the actual tally on hundreds of voting machines across the city.

In the Harlem district, for instance, where the primary night returns suggested a 141 to 0 sweep by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, the vote now stands at 261 to 136. In an even more heavily black district in Brooklyn — where the vote on primary night was recorded as 118 to 0 for Mrs. Clinton — she now barely leads, 118 to 116.


Favorite part of the article:

 Quote:
A number of political leaders also scoffed at the possibility that local politicians, even if they considered it vital that Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton prevail in the primary, were capable of even trying to hijack such a contest.

Still, for those inclined to consider conspiracy theories, the figures provided plenty of grist.


Ah yes, a little personal opinion from the objective reporter being injected into a news story. Because, you see, only a conspiracy nut would think that anyone would cheat at an election in America.

I think it went like much of NH did. In one precinct there no votes were cast for Ron Paul. Until somebody who did vote for Paul spoke up. Then they magically found 37 votes for him. The election officials excuse? We meant to put 37 but accidentally put zero.
Same thing happened to a lot of Obama votes in NH.

I went to the polls thinking and rethinking my choice hard up until the last minute as I was unhappy with both Obama and Hillary Clinton. At the end of the day, I chose Obama mostly on account of Hillary's husband Bill making a stump speech a couple of days before where he's deriding Bush's "No Child Left Behind" Act. A law Hillary Clinton VOTED FOR. That completely crystallized everything right there.

And now the more I see Obama and the hope he's generating, the interest he's igniting and the ridiculous campaigns being started against him, the more I like him. Apparently to the attack dogs of the punditocracy, a candidate sparking interest and what's more, excitement from the masses, is akin to cult-like behavior. Passion + politics = cult apparently. Better to have low turnout and an apathetic electorate so crap like this can succeed more easily.

God save our political discourse.

If enough of us turn out we can defeat the powers that think they know better than us voters what is good for the country.


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I'm curious why you dismiss that Hillary also had the same thing happen to her in some districts Whomod...
 Quote:
City election officials said they were convinced that there was nothing sinister to account for the inaccurate initial counts, and The Times’s review found a handful of election districts in the city where Mrs. Clinton received zero votes in the initial results.


Is Hillary to blame for those too?

Btw, Obama will also make sure that two whole states won't have their elections count if he's in a position to do so. He's looking just like any other politician to me.


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Maybe if the NY Times had been as specific with Hillary's "handful" of districts as they were specific about Obama's "80" then maybe it would have warranted being included.

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 Originally Posted By: whomod
Maybe if the NY Times had been as specific with Hillary's "handful" of districts as they were specific about Obama's "80" then maybe it would have warranted being included.


It would be nice to know what a handful actually is. It's rather poor form on the writer's part to give a hard number for Obama & then leave us with only the word "handful" for Hillary.

These were unofficial tallies btw & so far the difference is statistically so small it hasn't changed the results at all. Not sure if this rates much Hillary hate.


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 Originally Posted By: Friendly Neighborhood Ray-man
you know, the Nazis had pieces of flair. only they made the Jews wear them.




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View here the video of NBC's Tim Russert graphically laying out the evidence of how the Clinton campaign has changed its positions on the seating of the MI and FL delegates.

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I can't view video on my old machine so I can only guess the "evidence" doesn't consist of Hillary ever not wanting the delegates seated.


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 Originally Posted By: the G-man
View here the video of NBC's Tim Russert graphically laying out the evidence of how the Clinton campaign has changed its positions on the seating of the MI and FL delegates.


Since you brought it up, I have a question that maybe our resident Floridians can clear up.

While reading the article Dems divided over shunned states, the following excerpts struck me as odd...

 Quote:
If Florida Republicans hadn’t imposed an illicit January primary on their Democratic brethren, those voters would be gearing up now for a March 11 showdown that likely would have been the final contest of this year’s dramatic and historic primary season.


 Quote:
Democrats here united against Republican legislation changing the primary date.


Is that really how it went down? Were Republicans actually the ones who changed the primary date, or did the article screw up? I haven't been able to get a clear picture from any Floridians I know.

I don't know how this should turn out, personally. Given how desperately both candidates need to panhandle for votes, this could really get ugly.

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 Originally Posted By: The Pun-isher
 Originally Posted By: the G-man
View here the video of NBC's Tim Russert graphically laying out the evidence of how the Clinton campaign has changed its positions on the seating of the MI and FL delegates.


Since you brought it up, I have a question that maybe our resident Floridians can clear up.

While reading the article Dems divided over shunned states, the following excerpts struck me as odd...

 Quote:
If Florida Republicans hadn’t imposed an illicit January primary on their Democratic brethren, those voters would be gearing up now for a March 11 showdown that likely would have been the final contest of this year’s dramatic and historic primary season.


 Quote:
Democrats here united against Republican legislation changing the primary date.


Is that really how it went down? Were Republicans actually the ones who changed the primary date, or did the article screw up? I haven't been able to get a clear picture from any Floridians I know.

I don't know how this should turn out, personally. Given how desperately both candidates need to panhandle for votes, this could really get ugly.


There have been some conflicting reports about this but the gist of it comes down to Republicans were the one who pushed up the primary date but the democrats didn't fight it or at least fight it enough for Howard Dean & company to show any mercy.


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So, when Hillary loses, it will be "Bush's fault"(TM)?

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That doesn't even make sense G-man. Have you been taking crazy pills lately?


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No, I was joking, based on the theory that you posted and the fact that a lot of democrats tend to blame everything on Bush that, if Hillary loses, some of the crazier wings of the supporters might claim it was W's fault because "his" party forced the date change.

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That of course doesn't change how Obama "borrows" many of his words.


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In Hillary's favor is now McCain will be hitting Obama hard now. The press really likes him to so Obama will be fighting two fronts for the next couple of weeks.


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the opposite side of the coin there is that many people will find her irrelevant and some dems will see her as nothing more as the dem version of huckabee or paul.

PJP #926219 2008-02-20 9:07 PM
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Educator to comprehension impaired (JLA, that is you)
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Educator to comprehension impaired (JLA, that is you)
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only more manly.

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PJP Offline
We already are
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We already are
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PJP #926230 2008-02-20 10:02 PM
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Officially "too old for this shit"
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Officially "too old for this shit"
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Manly? This:

P'shaw...

PJP #926232 2008-02-20 10:10 PM
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Fair Play!
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Fair Play!
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 Originally Posted By: The New Adventures of Old PJP
the opposite side of the coin there is that many people will find her irrelevant and some dems will see her as nothing more as the dem version of huckabee or paul.


To an extent maybe but unlike the other two Hillary has won most of the big states against Obama. There isn't at this point anyway Huckabee could win unless McCain keeled over. (hmmn maybe his odds are better than Hillary's)


Fair play!
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