Originally Posted By: the G-man
More analysis of those polls from American Spectator:
  • ...unfortunately for her, these contests are likely to tighten. For one thing, the polling period ended on Feb. 12, before news hit of Obama's stunning trio of victories in the Potomac primaries.

    For another, Obama hasn't campaigned in either state yet. There are almost three weeks between now and the Ohio primary, and more than two months before Pennsylvania. That gives him plenty of time to campaign there, spend money on ads, and ride his wave of momentum. So Clinton still may win there, but she's unlikely to do so by wide enough margins to errode Obama's delegate lead.

    It seems to me that these polls represent a ceiling of support for her, while for him they're only the floor.


It's just one person's opinion, obviously, but I thought the addtional information about the polling dates and the amount of time Obama has to catch up was interesting.


It's points worth mentioning. I think it would be overly optomistic not to think the numbers won't tighten up in the weeks ahead. However these are states that have been favorable to Hillary, even when polls have shown Obama ahead by double digit leads. Wins would also make it much easier for her to keep & scoop up more superdelegates to put her over.

Fair play!